6 Replies Latest reply on Feb 1, 2018 9:12 PM by Paul Fowler

    Logic Puzzle - OPA Determination with probability

    Paul Fowler

      A probability problem comes up in policy that needs frequent solving:

       

      Do we immediately send police to a residence of suspected activity based on probability the situation will escalate?  Will a person likely skip bail? How likely is a benefit to be applicable after only a preliminary screening?  

       

      The challenge is that sometimes probability is involved.  We can't immediately send police to every event all the time.  We must sometimes be selective and our policy needs to allow for policy probability in some parts of our determinations.

       

      Puzzle #5

       

      The local department of criminal justice has provided the following statistics in determining the person’s probability of missing court (these statistics are made-up).  The overall probably of missing a court appointment is 45%.  Of those who miss court, 40% are in the local community, 80% had an outstanding warrant, and 10% had a job.

       

      Allowing for uncertainty and collecting 1) whether a person is a member of the community, 2) has an outstanding warrant, and/or 3) has as job, write an OPA policy that implements the following:

      As any FYI, my collection screen looks like this:

       

      Good Luck!  As always, I will mark helpful and one correct solution.

       

      P.S. After solved by the community, I will provide my quick and generic OPA pattern using Excel and Entity logic to solve for an arbitrary number of base attributes so that each attribute modifies the final result.