0 Replies Latest reply on Jun 29, 2017 3:23 PM by Chris|ger

    OBIEE 12c 12.2.1.2.0 - How to get forecast function working for small time intervals?

    Chris|ger

      Hello everyone,

       

      i'd like to know whether it is possible to debug the forecast function, included in Oracle 12c as forecast seems to be incorrect, if the forecast is based on just a few Input values (e.g. < 10 time values ).

       

      Is there a possibility to get forecast working for time intervals  with less than 10 time periods (years, months etc.)?

       

       

      Background Information/Example:

       

      I built an simple test answer, trying to forecast business revenues for 3 years ahead, based on the last 5 business years.

       

      Forecast results seemed fine, when the forecast was based on a lot of input values (e.g. more than ten years). But when there were less input values (e.g. less than 10 years), then forecast-values stayed the same for every year.

       

      OBIEE 12c Version used: 12.2.1.2.0 (on premise)

      Simple test answer:

      The answer includes 3 columns: Time.Year, Facts.Revenue, Forecast

       

      My column formular for the forecast column looks like this:

       

      Forecast column formular
      FORECAST("Facts"."Revenue", ("Time"."Year" timeYear),'forecast','modelType=arima;numPeriods=3;')

       

      This is what the results looked like, when there was no filter on the year column. Results seemed to be ok/ as expected.

       

      YearRevenueForecast
      2005100.000
      2006110.000
      2007120.000
      2008130.000
      2009140.000
      2010150.000
      2011160.000
      2012170.000
      2013180.000
      2014190.000
      2015200.000
      2016210.000
      2017220.000
      2018230.000
      2019

      240.000

       

      Decreasing the time interval by putting a filter on the year column (e.g. YEAR >= 2012) instead, led to wrong results. Forecast was the same for the years 2017, 2018, 2019.

       

       

      220.000

      YearRevenueForecast
      2012170.000
      2013180.000
      2014190.000
      2015200.000
      2016210.000
      2017220.000
      2018220.000
      2019

      220.000

       

      Nachricht geändert durch 1454010

       

      Message edited