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Forecast is same as shipment history and not giving any increased numbers

in Supply Chain Planning and Collaboration 8 comments

Summary:

I have created a forecast tree with Customer, Customer Site, Organization, Category - Flavor, Category Subflavor, Item.

I am uploading the shipment history at consolidated level. The time level value is selected as 'Day'. But the quantity is consolidated and has the value for month. The forecasting buckets in plan option is also month (Gregorian Calendar).

16 months of shipment history is uploaded. (Only 16 records, 1 record for each month). I wanted to understand that is this the right approach. Do we need to have shipment history uploaded at daily or weekly levels?

The current forecast I am getting is almost same as shipment history of last year. As per history, there are jumps in demand (on an average 40% jump from month to month). We are expecting similar trends in forecast, but the results are not accurate.

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