Enabling Naive Forecasting alters better forecasts we had without using it.

Summary:

We are perfecting the Forecast Profiles to obtain a better MAPE by changing some parameters. However, we need some explanation about a strange phenomena happening.

Content (please ensure you mask any confidential information):
During One of the latest runs of the engine, we excluded Naive by putting 0 in the parameter for the Forecast Profile. We look at MAPE by Family which groups several items. By looking at the Forecast Metrics (MAPE, MAD, BIAS, Outlier, Combinations Active vs overall Combinations), we found that for a specific Family we had a great MAPE of 0.22. However two families even if they had combinations marked as active did not receive a Forecast. Active mean it passed the PeriodUntil and PeriodAfter validation I guess and has enough history to calculate a Forecast. However, according to the