Demand Management – how to exclude zero-shipment weeks (supply halt) from forecast history?

Summary:

Hi all,

We're tuning a shipments forecast in Oracle Fusion Demand Management and need advice on handling a period with no shipments that was caused by a supply halt, not a drop in demand.

Setup

• Forecasting profile: user-defined, Bayesian
• Forecasting time level: week
• Input measure: Final Shipments History. Output measure: Shipments Forecast
• Active methods: Croston for Intermittent, Modified Ridge Regression, Regression, Regression for Intermittent, Transformation Regression. Holt was enabled in a later test.
• Parameters: IntermitCriterion 40, DetectOutlier 1, OutlierSensitivity 2.5, RemoveExtremeOutlier 0, FillMissingMethod 0, FitValidationSensitivity 0.5
• History: about 2 years, weekly

Issue

• One item had zero or near-zero shipments for about 7 consecutive weeks (late August to mid October), then recovered to normal levels.