Strange forecast results generated from Analytical Engine

Hi -

Users have noticed strange results from the Analytical Engine and they are requesting an explanation.  I realize there are complex statistical models that are used in the AE, but I was hoping someone can give a reason why we would see these results.

This is a new item and the only Booking History is:

Mar-12 qty 5

Apr-12 qty 10

May-12 qty 2

And the AE generated a forecast of:

May-12 qty 446

Jun-12 qty 3

Jul-12 qty 3

The users are questioning the validity of the 446 qty forecasted in May-12 based on the small qty booked.  Any help to explain is appreciated.  I can provide any info on system and enginer parameters.