Retail Predictive Application Server (MOSC)

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Reasons for "No Generated forecast" when using Simple Method

edited Jun 26, 2015 1:07PM in Retail Predictive Application Server (MOSC) Question


I am getting "No Generated Forecasts" when using Simple Method for a timeseries with 3 years of history. A very similar timeseries with exaclty the same paramters but very slight differences in history is coming up with reasonable forecast.

I tried to replicate the results using "Exponential Smoothing" in excel to compare the two time series. The one step fit errors(both absolute and directional) and their averages and standard deviations are very similar for both series in fact, the series whcih resulted in "No generated forecast" has marginally lower average absolute fit error.

I will like to understand, what critera other than lack of sales does Simple (and other ES methods for that matter) use to mark a forecast result as "No Generated Forecast". Documentation is very thin on this , and I dont think any of the measures are preserved in RDF domain.

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