Bookings forecast smoothing weekly variation though history shows strong week‑to‑week fluctuations

Summary:

We are facing an issue where my weekly bookings history shows large week‑to‑week variation, but the statistical forecast generated by Oracle is completely smooth.

Here is a simplified example from my data (one SKU, weekly level):

Weekly Bookings History (actuals): Examples from my file:

• 1260
• 700
• 1540
• 420
• 980
• 2520
• 3080
• 4600
• 160
• 1815
• 4900

These values show very high volatility, and the pattern repeats across multiple years (I also have “1 year ago” and “2 years ago” history showing similar weekly spikes).

But the Statistical Forecast looks like this: 539, 553, 577, 591, 604, 613, 620, 625, 628, 631, 633, 634, 635, 636, 637, 637, 638, 638…

The forecast is almost a straight line, with no weekly seasonality or variation

Content (please ensure you mask any confidential information):